The 'foreign' Candidate (1)
Because the presidential campaign seems to have degenerated almost permanently into a mudslinging contest, it’s hard to discern the positions of the candidates on various issues—assuming that they even remember them at this point. But some people, bless their non-showbiz souls, still hanker for more than discussions on the state of Noynoy Aquino’s mental health, say, or the financial health of Manny Villar when he still lived in Tondo.
It recently occurred to me that there has never been a real debate on foreign policy in the current campaign, for instance. While foreign policy, especially as it concerns the superpowers and our immediate neighbors, was once viewed as an important plank in any presidential candidate’s platform, any serious discussion about our relations with other countries has been drowned out by stuff like survey ratings and other political noises that used to be mere tangential concerns.
When we do hear about other countries these days, it’s often in the context of sending Filipinos to work there, which is really a discussion of labor policy, not foreign policy. While Filipinos in general have never really shown an interest in—or even a true aptitude for—geopolitical concerns, it’s fair to expect our candidates to at least talk about them once in a while even when they do not impact on the labor market.
So, I paid a visit to my favorite foreign-policy source, who has since retired from a lifelong academic and career involvement in foreign policy, even if he still advises key local players in government and business on the intricacies of geopolitics. Because he no longer has an official position (and because of his all-important and lucrative post-retirement consultancies), he now refuses to be identified—even if he will willingly discuss the lack of debate on what he calls “disturbing” foreign policy implications of the coming elections.
The first question I asked was, who is the American candidate in the coming elections? “Noynoy Aquino,” he replied. “And Noynoy is also the likely candidate of the other superpower,
“In the end, both China and the US may well come to the conclusion that dealing with Noynoy is a better option than dealing with Manny, not because Noynoy is better but that he might be more pliable and susceptible to pressure and manipulation than Manny. If I read these countries probable interests in our country reasonably accurately, this conclusion seems rather appropriate,” he explained.
My source says the funding sources of both the Villar and the Aquino campaigns provide clues as to why both world powers would much rather support Noynoy instead of Manny, as well. “Does it not bother you that Noynoy seems to be spending as much as Manny? The question is, where did the money come from considering that everybody was saying there was little money to fund Noynoy’s campaign?” he asked.
But won’t others argue that because the popularity of Noynoy is attracting “smart” money to his campaign, all of it local? “To some extent, this is probably true. The whole point of campaign contributions is to be able to ensure access, so some local businessmen contribute to likely winners or else play safe by giving to two or three candidates if the survey numbers are close,” he said.
“On the other hand, considering that Manny financed his campaign virtually single-handedly, together with the fact that he might win this election, the whole question of being able to gain access becomes a questionable objective to some extent,” he added. “Obviously, the value of large contributions becomes questionable because Manny has in effect declared he does not want to be so beholden that his judgment while in office might be compromised.
“This is not to say that Manny will not accept contributions, but only that no one will own him so much that Manny will feel too beholden. But the issues in this election are not strictly local and such a posture of self-sufficiency would make even non-local interests concerned about his possible victory,” he explained. “And that means both the
The 'foreign' Candidate (2)
Perhaps it’s true, as my source said, that Washington has found the supposed tractability of Noynoy Aquino appealing. Aquino, who can’t even speak publicly without reading from a page, will definitely be an easier Philippine president to deal with than someone else who may object to the imposition of American policy as it is dictated by whoever is chosen to be the White House’s messenger to Malacañang in a Noynoy administration.
If pet programs of the US do come to fruition under a new Aquino dispensation—like the revival of the jettisoned autonomous Bangsa Moro Juridical Entity and a permanent American military presence in geopolitically strategic Mindanao—we’ll know Noynoy is the new “Amboy.” But what about China, our northern neighbor, which presumably also likes Noynoy’s susceptibility to influence, given his lack of experience and his near-absolute dependence on his advisers?
How will Beijing try to influence Noynoy, and how is support from the mainland being funneled to him? To answer these questions, my source said he wanted to explain how Noynoy became the Chinese candidate, to begin with.
“You may call the Chinese decision to influence Noynoy an ethnic choice,” he said. “That’s because the other major candidate, Manny Villar, is about as Filipino as Filipino can be. Villar’s origins are undeniably indigenous and unfortunately for the Chinese or even the Americans, he succeeded in a business that does not rely on Chinese or American connections, so Manny is not beholden to either one or the other.
“Noynoy, on the other hand, traces his roots to the mainland [the Cojuangco side] and his mother made it very clear that her family has Chinese roots when she was president. You may have heard that Beijing is not really concerned with where an ethnic Chinese got his passport because to them, ‘Once a Chinese, always a Chinese, regardless of the number of generations [away from China].’
“China’s conduct of foreign policy acknowledges little principle other than loyalty to China and China’s self-interest, which is nothing new, save for the fact that China operates quietly and without ostentation. They are prepared to accommodate the corrupt demands of national leaders in the pursuit of large infrastructure projects, be it here, in South Asia, Africa and even Eastern Europe, this consideration being to them simply a fact of international life, a reality to be faced.
“China assiduously courts the African nations, the Eastern Europeans, the South Asian and Southeast Asian nations and South America with varying degrees of intensity based on how China sees her short- and long-term interests in the region; this, to ensure access to markets as well as to expand her influence in these nations. Her financial terms [for loans] are certainly far more generous than any other nation’s.
“The Chinese see these activities as a necessity to gaining favorable access to these nations in an effort to extend or deepen her suzerainty in the countries and regions she considers vital to her interests as part of China’s efforts to broaden her influence in world affairs. China is clearly seeking the full status of a major superpower which she is, if not in the same mold as the US or the former Soviet Union, then at least on par with them,” he added.
As to how Beijing’s support of Noynoy is manifested, my source was also clear. “The Chinese will likely not make direct contributions to Noynoy,” he explained. “The help extended is probably given through ‘influenced’ organizations and individuals. The likely sources of at least some of Noynoy’s campaign funds are the Filipino-Chinese organizations through their members, or big-time Filipino-Chinese businessmen with large investments in the mainland.”
Given the early talk about the Aquino campaign’s lack of resources, the reality that the Yellow camp is spending as least as much as Villar is and the Liberal candidate’s steadfast refusal to identify contributors to his war chest, my source believes that the Chinese funding may have already arrived. “Maybe all the talk of Noynoy’s campaign being short of funds was just a ploy to counter Manny’s campaign resources or at least the perception thereof, to make Noynoy seem like an underdog,” he said.
“Or else the foreign interests were watching [early] developments carefully and have only made their decision [to contribute] over the last few days, where we have seen rather dramatic developments and the escalation of dirty tricks and propaganda preying on fear and painting the opponent as an absolute disaster for the nation,” he added. “It’s telling that Noynoy recently announced that he has lately been turning down offers for help, especially if he is unsure of the motives of the contributor.”
* * *
The picture of a President Noynoy held hostage by either (or both) American and Chinese interests is not a pretty one. But it jibes with the portrait painted by his critics of an unprepared, inexperienced and ultimately clueless presidency that will be pulled this way and that by whichever interest has the presidential ear at the moment.
Unlike Ferdinand Marcos, who masterfully (at least for a time) played the China card when the Americans started breathing down too hard on his neck, we cannot reasonably expect Noynoy to stand his ground in the continuing geopolitical chess game between the two superpowers. And it’s quite possible that Washington will step into the picture once again if Aquino gets too cozy with the people who run the country where he traces his ethnic roots—just like they did when Washington helped install Cory Aquino in 1986 and when American “persuasion flights” fought back attempts to unseat her through those endless coup attempts during her administration.
What we can expect is a President Noynoy who may be paralyzed not only by his many competing advisers’ interests at home but also by the fear of incurring the ire of the big geopolitical dogs abroad. The same big dogs that will probably move to remove him—for corruption, insanity or whatever reason they may dream up—if he doesn’t follow their orders.
The last president who though he considered himself independent and who had an overwhelming and secure mandate from the people, after all, was Joseph Estrada. And we know what happened to him—sent to jail less than halfway into his six-year term.
Certainly, the current mudslinging that informs our presidential campaign is entertaining. But it would improve the quality of what passes these days for “issues” and “platforms” to look into how the candidates would tackle foreign relations, Philippine sovereignty and other matters that are swept aside by the noise of tabloid-oriented campaigning.
At the very least, we need to know who funds our candidates—especially those who claim that they will not steal. Perhaps they can make that claim because they’ve already received a lot of money, just by running a campaign that looks like it could win.
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